Redistricting Four Years Later: Breaking the Donkey’s Back

Four years ago, we visited the subject of gerrymandering, or the manipulation of a legislative constituency to favor one party, namely the GOP, which has been successful in gerrymandering legislative districts for at least three decades. Here we revisit the subject after the 2020 Census and subsequent redistricting, which the Constitution dictates. And it is not good news.

How redistricting works

A refresher: The US Constitution requires the government conduct a census of the population every 10 years. From that information, the Constitution also states, government must also produce a new map of congressional districts. There are a total of 435 districts in the US, and the Constitution stipulates that that number does not change. (The US Senate contains 100 senators, two from each state, as stipulated in the US Constitution, and that number also does not change.) The entire population of the US grows each decade, of course, and so the number of people represented by a district increases.

 But usually the population of specific areas grows or shrinks relative to other areas. In Tennessee, Middle Tennessee has continued to experience explosive growth, nearly 21% between 2010 and 2020, with Williamson County gaining 35%. This growth drove the state’s substantial increase in overall population. (By comparison, West Tennessee’s population has gained overall, while Shelby County’s has shrunk by 0.2%.)

According to the law, the number of people represented in each district must be very close to the same relative to other districts. That determines where the boundaries are drawn. The process of redrawing the boundaries is called redistricting.

The equal population requirement for congressional districts is strict. According to All About Redistricting, "any district with more or fewer people than the average (also known as the 'ideal' population), must be specifically justified by a consistent state policy. And even consistent policies that cause a 1% spread from largest to smallest district will likely be unconstitutional." This means that as some districts become larger, others will become smaller. And the boundaries will be redrawn.

By whom? It depends on how each state has mandated it. In 33 states, state legislatures play the dominant role in congressional redistricting, while other states use different methods. In Tennessee, the legislature oversees it. The heavily GOP legislature. So the outcome was expected, but the extent to which the state was gerrymandered was truly breathtaking.

But before we analyze the particulars, let’s look at some context. There are 9 Congressional districts in the state, 33 State Senate districts and 99 House districts, and those did not change from 2010 to 2020 (the state districts do not change per the Tennessee State Constitution). State criteria mandates that districts preserve counties whole wherever possible, that a limit of 30 counties may be split, and that districts be contiguous. Further, the US Supreme Court mandates that all redistricting abide by the Voting Rights Act and constitutional rules on race. (These rules are too complex to be discussed here and can be reviewed hereand here.)

And the actual process by which the redistricts were redrawn? It is unclear. (I spent over an hour searching the internet to determine what software was actually used to draw up the boundaries, to no avail. Interestingly, a plethora of redistricting software is available on the internet for anyone to redraw districts, including open-source software.) Tennessee is not required to hold hearings to explain their process nor to hear concerns, and predictably, they did not. No information was ever made available to the public.

Four years ago, I said: “In a hyper-partisan world, party affiliation among voters usually do not change much from election to election. A cleverly drawn map can increase or decrease the number of seats that with known Rep or Dem voters, thereby tilting the district in favor of one party or the other… The 2018 and 2020 elections are going to control who goes to the General Assembly and thus who draws the maps for the state.  Practically speaking, this will determine for the next decade how many Dem or Rep Congressmen we send to Washington.”

How redistricting has affected Tennessee

The 2020 Census is now complete, and the lines have been drawn.

On January 26, the legislature unveiled their redistricting map. In a move the Guardian dubbed “a masterclass in election-rigging,” it “dismembered” Davidson county. Before a fairly reliably blue county, the only other in the state besides Shelby County, Nashville has been split three ways, heavily favoring GOP candidates and prompting Rep. Jim Cooper, who has served the Nashville area in the House for twenty years, to not seek reelection. Joe Biden won the old district by 23 points. “The new districts crack the concentration of Democratic voters in Nashville and cram them into three districts that stretch across the state and are filled with reliable Republican voters. Donald Trump would have easily carried all three of the proposed districts in 2020. The plan is one of the clearest, and most brazen, efforts to dismantle a Democratic district to benefit Republicans.” Other districts have been drawn such that two Democratic representatives now belong to one district. Since there is a hypermajority in the state, Governor Lee will no doubt sign it. 

Shelby County is now the only blue district in the state.

 We can hope this will be redressed in the courts. At this point it is the only path to fairness.