Post Election: What's Ahead for Tennessee?

By Robert Donati, Future901 Treasurer

I’m going to break some Future901 rules with this article. It is going to be too long. It is going to be too candid. It is going to talk about Trump. I need to do all of those things though to explain where Tennessee is politically and why it is critically important that we learn from this election and move forward.

A Different Kind Of Year

First, anyone who follows our social media or blog will notice that we almost never discuss national figures, particularly not President Trump. This is intentional. Our goal is to flip legislative seats in Tennessee. Because of the electoral map, those seats only flip if you either 1) turn nonvoters into voting Democrats or 2) get some folks who have voted for GOP Presidential candidates to give your down ballot Democrats a chance. The latter is only possible if you are talking about the issues that matter to them (e.g. funding schools, expanding TennCare, protecting their water, etc). The discussion shuts down when the subject turns to national politics and that is particularly the case with Trump. However, we cannot make sense of this election without discussing Trump, so here goes.

This was the most polarized race in modern politics. Nationally, ticket splitters were few and far between. The big picture effect of that was that incumbents (who typically occupy districts that favor their party) did very, very well. In our opinion, this trend towards polarization was driven by four years of Trump. The trend was further cemented by the fact that COVID effectively crippled efforts by down ballot candidates to have direct contact with voters. (This was not a good year to be running a race that depended on grassroots canvassing).

So, West Tennessee, like the country at large, saw more voters than ever voting straight party ticket and candidates trying to flip districts had one arm tied behind their backs as soon as COVID hit.

So, What Were The Results For Our Candidates?

We saw a great win from Torrey Harris (District 90) who unseated 26-year incumbent John DeBerry. DeBerry effectively tied himself to the Republican party while representing a heavily Democratic district and he was crushed on election day.

Similarly, the GOP made a strong push to unseat Dwayne Thompson (District 96). However, the district has been trending more Democrat over the past several years and Thompson has been a responsive Representative. Thompson ended up winning handily.

Unfortunately, the partisan tide was too strong for our other candidates. In District 97, the continued work on that district yielded improvement, but not a victory. In 2016, the Dems didn't even run a candidate. In 2018, we lost by 9%. In 2020, Gabby Salinas will end up losing by about 400+ votes or 1-2%.

Similarly, District 83 saw Jerri Green run one of the most impressive State House campaigns we have ever seen and she continued to make Dem inroads in the district. To see how far we’ve come, in 2016, Dems lost the district by 28%. In 2018, we lost by 13%. In 2020, after all the votes are counted, we will end up losing by about 8%. A 20% swing didn’t happen by accident. It was hard-won progress, just not enough.

Big Picture: Demographics And Base Turn Out

Right now, among party big wigs in the Democratic Party and GOP worlds, there are discussions taking place about what these elections mean. What is most interesting is that, in some respects, folks in both parties see the world in a very similar way, which we can think of as the “demographics are destiny” folks.

Is it Just Demographics?

A good friend of mine is fond of talking about how politics now is really just about demographics. To summarize his point, and the point of folks like Prof. Rachel Bitecofer, true swing voters are extremely rare now and the vast majority of voters are not really persuadable. In this line of thinking, political change is really just about waiting for Boomers to die off and Millennials to become the dominant political driver. Many on the right would similarly look at the population rates of minority and youth groups and foresee the point at which white voters move from a majority of voting population to a plurality of the population. For the left, they view these demographic trends as a coming political salvation. For folks on the right, they view this as an impending doom.

If Demographics Rule Then Mobilizing Base Voters Is All That Matters

This perception that national elections are really about mobilizing base voters defined much of this race. This was particularly the case for President Trump who was an absolute savant at mobilizing Republican base voters. Consider that the only other election where the GOP won the popular vote in the last 20 years was George W Bush in 2004, when he garnered 62 million votes. Trump, by contrast, lost with 74 million votes. Unfortunately, for Mr. Trump, he was even better at mobilizing Dem voters to come out against him than at getting Republicans to come out for him. You really cannot explain this election without understanding the unique effect that Trump had on both parties’ ability to mobilize its respective bases.

So, the politics of both parties has been more about throwing red meat to its constituencies to drive turnout. Such an approach had a striking impact. With a 65% national turnout rate, this drove the highest level of voter participation in 100 years. Further, if you are a proponent of demographic trends, this election was pretty validating. For the most part (Mr. Trump excluded), incumbents did very, very well. R’s in R districts won. D’s in D districts won. Some Democratic Congressman that flipped Republican held districts in 2018 lost some of those seats in this highly polarized and high turn-out environment. Conversely, Republican Senators in Democratic trending states like Colorado and Arizona were defeated.

So, as an explanation for this election, it is pretty clear that the nation is more polarized and more mobilized politically than any point in living memory. Unfortunately, this thinking is also leading to some really bad mid and long-term policy decisions for both Parties. We need to grapple with these decisions now, because failure to do so could be disastrous for our state and our nation.

The Troubling “Lessons” The Parties Could Take From 2020

Republican POV

For people that believe that demographics are destiny, the 2020 results can drive two very different responses, both of which, in my opinion, are harmful to our democracy. The most egregious response is the GOP response. The GOP response is basically to find a way to make it harder for constituent groups of the Democrat base to vote and to employ more aggressive gerrymandering to segregate Democrat base voters to places where they have the least ability to influence election outcomes.

It is not coincidental that the final act of the Trump Presidency will be about convincing the GOP base that “rampant fraud” is this only explanation for why they are losing. Believing that the system is fraudulent allows for the GOP to rationalize the adoption of fundamentally undemocratic measures.

In Tennessee, we have seen a steady march of such measures meant to limit participation of certain voters. We have a florid display of disenfranchisement. Our felony disenfranchisement laws are more severe than almost any other state. That combined with a criminal justice system that disproportionately incarcerates African Americans, leads to 20% of African Americans in Tennessee being unable to vote. We have the earliest deadline for voter registration in the country (30 days ahead of the election) which hits the youth and lower-income voters harder, whereas Republican-controlled states (without large minority populations) like Wyoming and Utah have same-day voter registration. We are severely gerrymandered with hyper concentration of Democratic voters in a handful of districts. Similarly, in the last Legislative term Tennessee became the only state in the country to impose criminal penalties on voter registration. Further, recent anti-protest legislation deliberately made “camping” on state grounds a felony AFTER significant discussion that this would effectively result in the permanent disenfranchisement of individuals arrested for protesting the state.

In sum, for a portion of the GOP base and a majority of the Tennessee GOP leadership, the idea that demographics will lead to a permanent electoral disadvantage means they reject democracy or (at minimum) seek to severely constrain the ability of Democrat voters to vote. I doubt that this is what the rank and file GOP voter believe is happening, which is why party leadership is pushing so hard now to sell its base on the idea that elections are “rigged” or “fraudulent.” Once your supporters believe the other side are all “cheating,” they can accept any number of anti-democratic measures as being necessary.

Democratic POV

On the Democrat’s side, this idea that demographics are going to change everything leads to its own problems: arrogance and undervaluing the voter.

Nationally, many Dems are telling themselves that “we just need to wait a couple of cycles and demographics will turn it all around.” In this mindset, Dems feel that a couple of states (Texas primarily) will continue to trend blue as Millennials make up a larger portion of the population. Once Texas flips, the Electoral College will then mean a near-unstoppable Democratic map. Further, the thinking goes, even in deep-red states like Tennessee, demographics will make them more competitive over the next decade. Tennessee of 2020 is deep red, but Tennessee of 2030 becomes purple. So, there are a good number of Dem party leaders that believe that politics now is really just about giving reasons for respective tribes to show up and, eventually, demographic changes will settle the fight in the Dems favor. When that happens, all of the big policy problems that are killing folks in red states will be fixed by the newly ascendant Democratic Party nationally.

So, the Dem theory sounds great, what could possibly go wrong? A whole lot.

Are People Really Unpersuadable?

So, are people really unpersuadable? Will demographics ALONE make Tennessee districts more competitive in the long run? I think the answer to both of those questions is ultimately no.

First, it should be noted, that what has most defined political coverage nationally in the weeks after the election has been the areas where the data only makes sense if the “demographic” model DOESN’T work. For instance, outreach by the Trump campaign saw increases in support among Latino and African-American men. This was particularly the case in Florida where Joe Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton with Latino voters. These folks were persuaded.

Similarly, in Georgia, Trump significantly underperformed, whereas GOP Senate candidates did rather well. This is the reason why Biden won the state. The only explanation for this result is that enough GOP and Independent voters chose to split their ticket with Biden for President and GOP candidates for Senate. Again, a small, but decisive number of voters in Georgia were persuaded.

The story in Tennessee, was much like the story nationally: higher turnout, higher polarization, but definite shifts in voting patterns down ballot. Statewide Trump turned out over 320,000 more voters than in 2016, but he ended up with the exact same percentage of the vote, 60%. Biden performed better than Clinton going from 34% to 37%. So, we had a large (for TN) statewide turnout, but it had minimal effect on the statewide result.

Yet, that wasn’t the whole story. The statewide results stayed the same, but there were substantial shifts in where each party was getting its voters. Broadly speaking, rural Tennessee got much “redder” while suburban Tennessee got more “blue.” District 83 had a 20% Dem swing over 4 years. District 97 didn’t even have a Dem run in 2016 because it was “too red” and we ended up losing by 1-2% margin. This was not demographics. This was the story of consistent grassroots work combined with strong candidates.

So, bottom line, voters can be persuaded, but it takes consistent and hard work to do so.

Is That Work Worth It?

This is the heart of the matter. The Democratic Party “establishment” knows everything that has been laid out above. When you get them in real conversations about states like Tennessee, occasionally you will get a real answer about why they don’t put more money into the state to build the party, flip seats etc. When they are being honest, they will tell you that they just don’t think that investing in change in Tennessee is worth it. Why spend a $1mil on flipping a few State House and Senate Districts when Republicans will still maintain a supermajority? Yeah, flipping those seats would mean that the GOP could no longer raid our school funding through voucher programs or that they would be pressured into finally expanding TennCare, but what difference does that make to the Democratic Party’s donor class. Besides, the smart folks all “know” that demographics are going to be the Party’s salvation and that things will just “turn blue” over time.

Obviously, we think the prevailing attitude is garbage. As the Trump Presidency comes to a close, it should be evident now that the salvation of our Republic rests more on restoring viable Democratic parties in states like Tennessee than it does in controlling every US House seat in California.

If the Trump years have taught us anything, they have taught us DEMOCRACY IS NOT SELF-EXECUTING. We have seen an enormous erosion in our democratic safeguards. In one abuse after another, we saw partisanship win over allegiance to the country and the Constitution. It is folly to think that any of those problems will be resolved because of a change in the Presidency. Our nation remains one bad election away from authoritarianism. We need to ask ourselves what is going to restore some semblance of order. Ultimately, it is Future901’s belief that the key to restoring sane behavior is to change who politicians respond to in red states.

In a polarized and gerrymandered political landscape like Tennessee, the only competitive election a politician faces is likely to be in the primary. So, whoever can control or direct base voters in a primary will be the person that has political leverage over those in office. This has been the case under the Trump administration with Republicans living in fear of an unfavorable tweet that will signal a successful primary challenge against them. However, when that same politician has to start considering a threat from the other side of the aisle and has to win voters in the middle, self-interest dictates that they will behave in a very different manner. Looking at the Tennessee map, because of gerrymandering from the GOP and consistent neglect from national Dems, there are perhaps 10 State House seats right now where an incumbent could fear losing in the general election. There are no US House seats. So, what kind of representation does this breed? It is the difference between Howard Baker and Marsha Blackburn. This process results in a Republican party that is now willing to abandon our most basic American values and is testing the waters of authoritarianism.

So, bottom line, party building in TN is not only worth it, it is essential if we are going to see our statewide leaders pull back from the extremism that now defines our state.

Is There A Solution?

There is a way out of this state of affairs. It is simple, but very hard. Our state has to field fully-funded, viable candidates in these red districts. Cycle after cycle, we have to put in the work of making the kinds of gains we achieved in Districts 83 and 97. This is the only way to move us forward as a state. It is the only way that we can safeguard from authoritarianism. Future901 is prepared to be a part of this work. We are building on the gains that we have made and we are making ready for the fights ahead.

Our work is the work of rebuilding Tennessee. It is restoring our democracy. It is safeguarding a just and equitable future for everyone. This will be frustrating and painful, but together we will prevail.